Michael Saylor is using Strategy’s new BTC Credit dashboard to argue that the company’s bitcoin-backed debt and preferred stock have plenty of room before Bitcoin’s price becomes a problem. Saylor posted the dashboard’s core assumptions on X on August 12, 2026, describing it as a way to “track the impact of our capital markets actions” and linking to Strategy’s BTC Credit dashboard.
Our BTC Credit model uses a 10% BTC ARR reference case, color-codes spreads by tier (Investment Grade, High Yield, Distressed), and shows BTC Floor prices below which instruments are undercollateralized. Track the impact of our capital markets actions: https://t.co/uTlyGWcQWW pic.twitter.com/xAfXYQoU8d
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) August 12, 2026
The dashboard runs on a $64,093 bitcoin price, 40% volatility and a 10% annual bitcoin return assumption. Under those inputs, it lists a specific dollar floor for every slice of Strategy’s debt and preferred stock, the price below which the instrument becomes undercollateralized.
Strategy’s six convertible note tranches, maturing between 2028 and 2032, carry a combined BTC Floor of $2,456. Its five preferred stock series, STRF, STRC, STRE, STRK and STRD, share a BTC Floor of $20,587, which is also where the combined $21.95 billion in debt and preferred stock notional bottoms out.
| Instrument | Notional ($M) | Duration (Yrs) | BTC Rating | BTC Floor | BTC Floor ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convert 2028 | $1,010 | 1.1 | 173.5x | $369 | (99.10%) |
| Convert 2030 B | $2,000 | 1.6 | 58.2x | $1,101 | (92.70%) |
| Convert 2029 | $1,500 | 1.8 | 38.9x | $1,650 | (86.72%) |
| Convert 2030 A | $800 | 2.1 | 29.6x | $2,163 | (80.01%) |
| Convert 2031 | $604 | 2.1 | 29.6x | $2,163 | (79.98%) |
| Convert 2032 | $800 | 2.8 | 26.1x | $2,456 | (68.03%) |
| Total Debt | $6,714 | 1.8 | 26.1x | $2,456 | (83.37%) |
| STRF | $1,284 | 9.9 | 16.1x | $3,983 | (23.14%) |
| STRC | $10,254 | 8.0 | 4.0x | $16,184 | (10.90%) |
| STRE | $896 | 8.3 | 3.7x | $17,250 | (9.71%) |
| STRK | $1,402 | 8.8 | 3.4x | $18,919 | (7.82%) |
| STRD | $1,402 | 7.1 | 3.1x | $20,587 | (9.53%) |
| Total Pref | $15,239 | 8.2 | 3.1x | $20,587 | (7.62%) |
| Total Debt + Pref | $21,952 | 6.2 | 3.1x | $20,587 | (11.36%) |
Measured against that spot price, Bitcoin would have to drop about 96% to reach the $2,456 debt floor and about 68% to reach the $20,587 preferred stock floor. Both declines are much steeper than the -83.37% and -7.62% figures the dashboard lists next to those same instruments.
That gap exists because the dashboard’s “BTC Floor ARR” column is an annualized rate tied to each tranche’s remaining duration, not a one-time measure of the distance from today’s bitcoin price to the floor. Reading the -7.62% figure as saying Bitcoin only needs to fall 7.62% would therefore understate the decline implied by the dashboard’s own floor price.
Bitcoin traded at $64,050 at 10:21 a.m. UTC on August 12, down 0.18% over the prior day. It has held inside a $63,000 to $65,200 range since August 6, according to CoinMarketCap data. Strategy sold 1,690 BTC between August 3 and August 9, while increasing its USD reserve by $650 million as Bitcoin traded near the levels used in its new BTC Credit model.
Where the Debt and Preferred Stock Differ
The debt side carries most of the model’s cushion. Convert 2028 through Convert 2032 run 1.1 to 2.8 years in duration and carry BTC Ratings as high as 173.5x, Strategy’s term for how many times bitcoin covers the claim at the model’s assumed price.
The preferred stack is longer and thinner. STRC alone makes up $10.25 billion of the $15.24 billion in preferred notional, with a 4.0x BTC Rating and a 114 basis point BTC Credit spread, comfortably inside the dashboard’s investment-grade band of 150 basis points or less. Only STRD, at 173 basis points, crosses into the high-yield range the dashboard defines as 150 to 500 basis points.
STRC has traded below its $100 par value since mid-May 2026. Strategy CEO Phong Le has said Bitcoin would need to fall into the $8,000 to $10,000 range, roughly 84% to 88% below current levels.
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