Strategy now tracks Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average directly, and the timing behind that decision is worth noting on its own. On July 31, Michael Saylor described Bitcoin as trading at “a very slight premium”. By August 3, in the tweet announcing the new tracker, he put it differently: Bitcoin is “almost exactly,” at $63,508. That’s a real, measurable convergence in under a week, toward a level Bitcoin has spent 92% of its recorded history trading above.
We’re now tracking Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average and its premium to that level on https://t.co/uGbtzwJ4Pu. Since the 200W MA became available, Bitcoin has traded above it 92% of the time. Today, it sits almost exactly on the line. pic.twitter.com/7IHrLcIoLI
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) August 2, 2026
What the 200-Week Average Actually Shows
The metric itself is simple: an average of Bitcoin’s weekly closing price over the trailing 200 weeks, roughly four years. It smooths out the noise of any single week’s move and gives a longer read on where price sits relative to its own trend. Three moments get cited most often as this line’s track record: 2015, 2018, and 2022, each a period widely described as a market bottom, with Bitcoin touching or dipping below the average before recovering above it.
| Year | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 2015 | Bitcoin touched the 200W MA |
| 2018 | Same pattern during the late-2018 selloff |
| 2022 | Same pattern following the market-wide 2022 drawdown |
| 2026 | Bitcoin sitting almost exactly on the line as of this week |
What the Company Urging You to Watch This Level Has Actually Done Lately
Strategy, the entity operating this tracker and fresh off its Strategy Q2 earnings update, holds roughly 843,775 bitcoin. It’s been flat for five consecutive weekly SEC filings. Over the same stretch, the company’s USD reserve climbed to $3.75 billion, more than four times what it held nine weeks earlier. The most recent piece of that reserve funded a $25 million buyback of STRC preferred shares, paid for by issuing new MSTR stock, not by deploying idle cash.
The company telling investors to watch this level as a buying opportunity hasn’t itself added to its Bitcoin position in over a month, even as it builds cash and manages its balance sheet more actively than its “we hodl” framing suggests.
What Happens From Here Isn’t Settled by Today’s Tweet
What’s worth watching in the meantime is whether Strategy’s own behavior changes. The company has spent five straight weekly filings building cash rather than adding bitcoin, even as its executive chairman, who has also backed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, publicly frames this exact price level as a buying opportunity. If Strategy resumes buying now, that would be a stronger signal than the tweet itself.
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