- JPMorgan analysts say bitcoin could outperform gold if ETF-related hedging activity eases
- The bank points to short interest in BlackRock’s IBIT sitting near its 2026 high relative to gold ETFs
- The note follows a stretch in which gold has outpaced bitcoin as a safe-haven trade
JPMorgan told clients this week that bitcoin could begin outperforming gold if hedging pressure tied to spot bitcoin ETFs continues to unwind. The bank’s analysts flagged that short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known as IBIT, is sitting near its highest level of 2026 relative to gold ETF positioning, a setup they argue could flip in bitcoin’s favor as that hedging activity fades.
The mechanics behind the call are worth explaining. When investors buy shares of a spot bitcoin ETF, market makers on the other side of those trades often hedge their exposure by shorting bitcoin futures or borrowing bitcoin itself, rather than carrying the price risk directly. That hedging activity can suppress bitcoin’s spot price even while ETF demand is rising, because the hedge trades add selling pressure that offsets the buying. JPMorgan’s argument is that this suppression has been unusually heavy this year, and that unwinding it would remove a drag on bitcoin’s price that gold ETFs do not carry in the same way.
The call comes after a period in which gold has drawn more safe-haven demand than bitcoin. Gold has repeatedly been framed this year as the preferred hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical risk, a role bitcoin’s supporters have argued it should increasingly share. That argument has struggled to hold up in practice, with gold posting steadier gains through several periods of market stress that saw bitcoin sell off alongside other risk assets instead of acting as a hedge.
JPMorgan’s note does not predict a timeline for when hedging pressure might ease, and it stops short of forecasting a specific price target. The bank’s framing is narrower and more mechanical: the structural pressure currently working against bitcoin relative to gold is not permanent, and has room to reverse if ETF flow patterns shift. Whether that shift materializes will depend largely on how institutional allocators rebalance between the two assets heading into the fourth quarter.
The debate over whether bitcoin can meaningfully compete with gold as a portfolio hedge has run for years without a clear resolution. Gold’s multi-decade track record as a store of value during inflationary periods and geopolitical shocks gives it a credibility bitcoin has not yet matched, in part because bitcoin’s price history spans barely more than a decade and includes several drawdowns exceeding 70 percent from prior peaks. JPMorgan’s note does not argue bitcoin has closed that credibility gap; it argues only that a specific, mechanical source of downward pressure on bitcoin’s price may be temporary, a narrower and more testable claim than the broader thesis that bitcoin is replacing gold as the market’s preferred safe haven.
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