Matt Cole, chief executive of Bitcoin treasury company Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), says bitcoin’s bear market has ended. His evidence: bitcoin broke out against both gold and the dollar in the same week, a pairing he has watched as a leading signal since 2024.
“My conviction is very strong that the Bitcoin bear market is over,” Cole wrote in a post on X. He called the joint breakout “explosive” and said it left him “more bullish on Bitcoin today than I have ever been.”
Bitcoin priced in gold is reinforcing my view that the next Bitcoin cycle will be the strongest we have ever seen. The dollar thesis I wrote about below and the growing hunt for scarcity in an AI-driven world of abundance both point toward a powerful structural tailwind for… https://t.co/ZbGsWawGCw pic.twitter.com/4Y5WZhpANP
— Matt Cole (@ColeMacro) August 24, 2026
Bitcoin closed the week at $77,587, up $14,264, its largest dollar-denominated weekly gain on record, a 22% move. Bitcoin was trading at around $77,192, with a seven-day gain of 21.4%, at the time of writing.
The gold ratio Cole says called the bottom early
Cole’s argument rests on the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, the amount of gold one bitcoin buys. He put that ratio at 16.73 ounces on August 24, its highest reading since May. Gold traded at $4,643.95 an ounce the same day, according to Trading Economics, a level that implies a ratio of roughly 16.66 ounces, close enough to Cole’s figure to hold up. The Strive STRC SATA rebound also adds to signs of improving sentiment across Bitcoin-linked assets.
Cole said bitcoin peaked against gold in December 2024, about a year ahead of its dollar peak in October 2025. He said it then bottomed against gold in February 2026, roughly five months ahead of its dollar bottom in July. In his account, the ratio has led the dollar price at both ends of the cycle.
Separately compiled market data on the ratio’s decline points the same direction, if not to Cole’s exact numbers: the ratio fell from roughly 40 ounces per bitcoin in December 2024 to about 20 ounces by the end of 2025, a decline that lines up with a gold rally running well ahead of bitcoin through most of that stretch.
What moved this week
The rally accelerated after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on August 19 the department would raise the maximum size of its bond buybacks for longer-dated debt from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The dollar index fell below 99 in the days after, a multi-month low tied to Federal Reserve rate repricing and renewed US debt concerns.
Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $1.92 billion in net inflows in the week ended August 21, the strongest since October 2025, when bitcoin was near the top of its prior cycle. Strive’s $50 million STRC investment also highlights growing institutional interest in Bitcoin-linked preferred securities. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index climbed to 78, its highest since December 2024.
Cole frames the move as one leg of a longer thesis: a dollar he expects to weaken over a sustained period, combined with what he calls a “growing hunt for scarcity in an AI-driven world of abundance,” pushing capital toward gold, silver and bitcoin alike. “Capital will increasingly place a premium on forms of scarcity that cannot be manufactured away,” he said.
Strive’s Bitcoin Strategy Depends on a Bullish Cycle
Strive holds roughly 20,246 bitcoin, making it one of the larger public corporate holders, at an average cost near $94,345 per coin, well above the current spot price. The company has built its balance sheet around what it calls bitcoin amplification, buying bitcoin with no debt, margin or financing arrangements that could force a sale. Cole has said he considers being too conservative a bigger risk than being wrong, arguing that waiting for cash flow to buy bitcoin risks paying more for fewer coins later. A bear market ending is, in that sense, good for his company and its stock as much as it is a market call.
Strive has continued adding Bitcoin during periods of market weakness. On June 22, 2026, Strive added 759 BTC for roughly $50 million, reinforcing the company’s strategy of increasing its Bitcoin exposure despite broader market pressure.
Cole still allows for a pullback. “A meaningful retracement from here would not surprise me, but it may not happen at all,” he said, adding that he expects buyers to show up aggressively if one comes. His outlook is framed around the next 12 to 18 months, with the broader scarcity thesis extending over several years. “When Bitcoin is the fastest horse, it will attract a disproportionate share of that capital.”
Disclaimer: Cryip's content is strictly for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Cryptocurrency involves significant risk, and readers assume full responsibility for their own financial decisions. Asset references are never endorsements.
To make complex crypto topics accessible to readers at all experience levels, our team uses AI tools strictly to refine language, correct grammar, and simplify terminology. AI is never used to draft facts, source information, or form conclusions. Every article is fact-checked and approved by a human editor before publication. Read our full AI Use & Content Policy.
