Americans traded an estimated $571 million on political prediction markets through Polymarket over the past year despite the platform officially restricting U.S. users, according to a report from Allium.
The report found that wallets linked to U.S. users generated the highest political betting volume globally, highlighting continued demand for decentralized prediction markets even as regulatory restrictions remain in place.
U.S. Leads Global Political Betting Activity
According to Allium, wallets linked to U.S. users traded approximately $571 million across Polymarket’s political markets over the past 12 months, the highest among all countries. Hong Kong ranked second with around $422 million in trading volume.
The researchers based their findings on blockchain wallet activity rather than user registrations or IP addresses, offering an on-chain view of trading patterns across the platform. The platform also came under scrutiny after a WSJ investigation alleged that Polymarket used fake bets in promotional videos created by paid influencers.
Restrictions Have Not Stopped Participation
Polymarket has prohibited U.S. users since reaching a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022. However, the report suggests that some traders continue accessing the platform through crypto wallets and other methods that make geographic enforcement more challenging.
According to the analysis, U.S. participants showed greater interest in geopolitical and international conflict-related prediction markets than in election-focused contracts, reflecting broader use cases beyond domestic politics.
Regulatory Debate Continues
The findings arrive as prediction markets remain under growing regulatory scrutiny. Policymakers continue to debate how decentralized forecasting platforms should be regulated, particularly when users can interact directly with blockchain-based applications.
The report also highlights the limitations of enforcing regional restrictions in decentralized ecosystems, where wallet activity can be publicly tracked but user identities and locations are often difficult to verify with certainty.
As blockchain-based prediction markets continue to expand, regulators and platform operators are likely to face increasing pressure to balance compliance requirements with the borderless nature of decentralized finance.
On June, Japan’s Bitbank warned that transfers linked to Polymarket could result in account suspensions over potential gambling law violations.
Among Polymarket’s live prediction markets, the 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner contract is one of the platform’s most active, recording nearly $4 billion in trading volume. France currently leads the market with a 33% implied chance of lifting the trophy, ahead of Argentina, England, and Spain. The market continues to attract significant trading activity as bettors adjust their positions throughout the tournament’s final stages.
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